Irony abound on Championship Sunday
Football Betting Lines
01/23/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Francisco 49ers had been living off turnovers and stellar special teams play all throughout their tremendous 2011 season. Tom Brady had been bailing out a condemned New England Patriots defense time and time again over that same time frame.
Which makes it all the more harder to explain how the former's championship dreams died because of a pair of disastrous mistakes from the NFL's best "third phase" unit over the course of this campaign, or how Brady's maligned mates on the other side of the ball saved their star quarterback's bacon in the first of a strange and spellbinding two games that determined this year's Super Bowl contestants.
Then again, in a season where close contests and rousing comebacks have been anything but uncommon, such puzzling twists of fate probably shouldn't seem all that peculiar.
Still, to have Sunday's NFC Championship nail-biter between the 49ers and New York Giants decided on a second botched punt return by San Francisco's Kyle Williams was a bit weird, a circumstance almost as eerie as the similar sequence of events that unfolded to make Rex Ryan's worst nightmare come true -- a rematch between the Giants and Patriots for all the marbles on the grandest stage of them all four years after the teams put on one of the most dramatic Super Bowl shows ever.
While the lasting image from the Patriots' 23-20 outlasting of Baltimore in the AFC title match will be Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff's shocking shank of a chip- shot field goal in the final seconds that would have forced overtime, that moment of infamy wouldn't have taken place if not for the contrastingly clutch performance of a New England defense universally viewed to be along for the ride for the club's journey to the conference championship. A rag-tag mixture of castoffs, inexperienced unknowns and offensive defections had by far its finest three hours, continually rising to the occasion and keeping a game on the verge of slipping away in several spots within reach before Brady shook off a few uncharacteristic stumbles to engineer one of his trademark late comebacks.
Cundiff's unfortunate initiation into the dreaded fraternity made famous by Scott Norwood and Gary Anderson came about after a game-saving play by New England cornerback Sterling Moore, an undrafted rookie released back in mid- December before being promoted back off the practice squad just prior to the regular season's penultimate week. The green 21-year-old looked like an established veteran, however, in successfully jarring the football out of the unsteady hands of Ravens receiver Lee Evans in the closing seconds, preventing a would-be game-winning touchdown catch and redeeming himself for a costly miscue earlier in the afternoon, when the backup defender whiffed on a tackle that turned into a 29-yard score for Baltimore's Torrey Smith late in the third quarter.
Moore wasn't the only unlikely hero. Right after Smith's touchdown put the Ravens up by a 17-16 count, Baltimore recovered a Danny Woodhead fumble at New England's 28-yard line on the ensuing kickoff. But the defense stood its ground and forced a successful Cundiff field goal when safety James Ihedigbo (an ex- Jet, no less) buried Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco on a third-down blitz.
Baltimore was able to make the most of every break that came its away in last week's hard-earned 20-13 victory over Houston, converting three Texans' turnovers into 17 points. The Ravens induced three more on Sunday, including two interceptions of a surprisingly-shaky Brady, but came away with nothing more than a pair of Cundiff three-pointers off those errors. Four times Baltimore invaded the red zone, but only one of the trips resulted in a touchdown.
"They're the real MVP of this game, without a shadow of a doubt," Patriots guard Brian Waters said of the defense. "You look at how many bad situations they were put in today and they held their own. They create a turnover and we give it right back. We get a turnover on special teams and they hold [the Ravens] to three. They did an unbelievable job of creating pressure, but yet tackling guys."
While Moore, pressed into an increased role after starting cornerback Kyle Arrington sustained an eye injury in the second quarter (which in turn landed another unsung performer, reserve wide receiver Julian Edelman, as the team's primary nickel back), managed to atone for his previous mistake, Williams couldn't capitalize on his opportunity for restitution. The second-year receiver, handling punts with regular return man Ted Ginn Jr. unavailable due to a knee problem, set the Giants up in scoring position early in the fourth quarter by failing to get out of a way of a short kick and watching the opponent recover the loose ball. Less than three minutes later, New York quarterback Eli Manning connected with Mario Manningham for a 17-yard touchdown that loomed large in a game that ultimately went into overtime.
Williams' second fumble, stripped away by Giants' rookie linebacker Jacquian Williams deep in San Francisco territory after the Niners' sturdy defense created a quick three-and-out in the extra period, would be even more pronounced. Shortly after two hard Ahmad Bradshaw runs gave Big Blue a first down inside the 10-yard line, kicker Lawrence Tynes did what Cundiff couldn't and knocked home a 31-yard try for the deciding points in a 20-17 triumph that sparked its share of deja-vu visions from onlookers everywhere.
The kick was one of the two biggest in Tynes' life. The other came four years ago, also in the NFC Championship. On the road. In overtime. In rough weather conditions. Just after the Giants came up with a pivotal turnover. Against the conference's No. 2 seed. Just one week after they upset the No. 1 seed.
And of course, to bring about a showdown with the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Notice the symmetry here?
Now, the historical correlations between this upcoming matchup and the one that took place between these two tradition-rich foes in Arizona's University of Phoenix Stadium during February of 2008, when the underdog Giants pulled off a stunning 17-14 upset of the then 18-0 Pats in Super Bowl XLII, won't at all guarantee a duplicate outcome. But it certainly ensures that the onslaught of media that will be descending upon Indianapolis in the coming weeks won't be scraping for material to promote a game that had a few fascinating storylines already built in.
The idea of Manning attempting to win a second Super Bowl -- or one more than big brother Peyton -- in the city where his elder sibling carved out his legendary career is pure gold for writers and broadcasters, as is the underlying rivalry between the unflappable Giants quarterback and Brady that was unintentionally stoked when Manning confidently commented that he belonged in the same class as his two-time league MVP counterpart over the summer.
There's also a sentimental angle that adds to New England's revenge motive, with the Patriots having dedicated the season to beloved owner Robert Kraft's late wife Myra after she passed away from a long and courageous battle with cancer in July.
Or how about the connection between Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin, two of the game's premier head coaches and former co-members of the Giants' staff under Bill Parcells, who once roamed the sidelines of both franchises and is one of this year's finalists for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, with the class to be announced the night before the Super Bowl?
Bring on the hype.
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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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